Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.189263 2.919451 3.916251 5.412179 7.664794e+00 1.104185e+01 1.671619e+01
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.543536 2.367734 3.716893 6.226000 1.113144e+01 2.120242e+01 4.649472e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.101087 1.887646 3.382649 6.742306 1.518085e+01 3.941640e+01 1.397658e+02
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.888249 1.696191 3.480264 8.392654 2.494610e+01 9.928451e+01 8.046913e+02
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.716690 1.504176 3.496166 10.175423 4.100288e+01 2.841319e+02 1.073335e+04
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.593320 1.358364 3.560537 12.582217 7.205518e+01 1.106789e+03 6.036670e+06
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.491736 1.215009 3.555239 15.190987 1.283096e+02 6.416567e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.382779 0.995642 3.145570 15.460276 1.799617e+02 3.611544e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.296338 0.801219 2.685766 14.776213 2.283918e+02 2.950127e+05 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.247159 0.700491 2.528041 16.106273 3.747646e+02 4.692315e+08 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.219787 0.658952 2.603988 20.069325 8.638909e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.202662 0.645606 2.822935 27.297226 2.901256e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.178212 0.596962 2.846259 33.874201 1.054300e+04 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.148165 0.510359 2.556126 34.445467 2.432787e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.122380 0.430010 2.231731 32.998958 4.898907e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.108769 0.396878 2.206263 39.322261 4.666163e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.096643 0.364537 2.155693 45.875818 2.478524e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.087236 0.340562 2.149922 55.771198 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.078698 0.316687 2.120359 66.409945 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.067870 0.276006 1.886647 63.298134 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.058058 0.236999 1.632137 56.151325 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.052133 0.216612 1.545212 59.999582 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.048885 0.209444 1.589638 77.183621 NaN NaN NaN